RANDOM THOUGHTS ON OBAMA'S MIDEAST SPEECH

It would be difficult to ignore President Obama's speech last Thursday on the Middle East and the Arab world. At the same time, it triggered so many random thoughts so in place of a seamless posting on the speech, it seemed okay to set out these thoughts independently.

-- One wonders why Obama gave the speech at all unless he felt a need to assemble all of the events-- past and ongoing -- into a single policy speech to seek to re-assert U.S. leadership in an area where in fact our influence has been marginalized by the so-called "Arab Spring". With so many moving parts still in motion, the speech seemed somewhat premature if it was intended as a new policy road map.

-- Why the seeming haste now on an Israeli-Palestinian settlement when so many relevant factors are still undetermined? These factors include: great instability in neighboring Syria where demonstrations, stern repression, and deaths are still occurring; the future of Egyptian policy toward Israel which has become less supportive already and the coming Egyptian elections may further influence Cairo's policy toward Israel; and the Hamas-Fatah reconciliation may or may not last but it greatly influences both U.S. and Israeli attitudes toward the possibility of negotiations. Alternatively, is it less a matter of Obama trying to speed up the Israeli-Palestinian peace process than it is his giving up on the process by presenting a seemingly reasonable basis of negotiation that is clearly unacceptable to both sides? In either case, the United States now seems to be isolated from the relevant players.

-- Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's acting like an American politician seeking to create a talking point to guide Israel's true believers. His reference to the l967 borders as being "indefensible" is predicated on those borders being adopted as final in any Israeli-Palestinian settlement. By talking tough Netanyahu was also playing to his audience in Israel. In fact his statement is a red herring since Obama made it abundantly clear that the l967 border was just a starting point for negotiations which would undoubtedly include some significant land swaps. Such swaps would reflect the Jewish settlements that have sprung up over the past 44 years and perhaps involve the status of East Jerusalem which the Palestinians would like to get back as their capital for an independent Palestine. Nevertheless, Netanyahu's statement immediately became the basis for political attacks by U.S. politicians like Mitt Romney and pro-Israeli members of Congress, of which there are many. A number of GOP would-be Presidents will attend the AIPAC (a potent pro-Israel lobbying group) policy conference this week in Washington.

And while on the subject of l967 borders, the issue with the Palestinians is not the only border dispute. There is also the Golan Heights dispute with Syria who wants the land back, land which Israel regards as essential to its military security.

-- There appeared to be little in the speech to please the Arab world. There were promises of financial aid to Tunisia and Egypt and general support, once again, for the spread of democracy in the region, but Syrian dictator Assad seemed to get another pass. Instead of "go now", Obama told Assad to promote peaceful democratic reform or "get out of the way". Reaction from the Arab world about Obama's speech was less than enthusiastic.

To me there was something more for the Arabs than met the eye or ear. In becoming the first official U.S. public statement about using the l967 borders as a starting point for negotiations, Obama was in fact tilting somewhat toward a more balanced policy between Israel and Arab contries. Obama has been and continues to be perceived as less friendly toward Israel than previous administrations. But if Obama hoped that this would be seen as a more pro-Arab bias he lost points with his absolutist statement on Hamas and his opposition to a Palestinian plan to seek United Nations recognition of an independent Palestine this fall.

-- On the lighter side, at least to this blogger, and perhaps not linked to the speech was the report that Representative Peter King of New York is considering running for President. Maybe King figures his Long Island political base is fertile ground for tapping into pro-Israeli sentiment, at least for fund raising. Certainly his anti-Muslim House hearings earlier this year must have strengthened his ties to the pro-Israeli community, if they needed to be strengthened.

-- Still on the presidential candidate theme. All of the attention given to Obama's speech must have distracted from the campaign visit to New Hampshire of a new GOP wannabee -- Jon Huntsman, former governor of Utah and Obama's ambassador to China until recently. Huntsman's tracking through New Hampshire for five days would most likely have gotten more national media attention if Obama's speech hadn't dominated the news cycles in the early part of Huntsman's visit. And if past manipulation of the media is any guide to the future, look for Huntsman to become the new media darling, one likely to last longer than the most recent media love affair with Donald Trump.

So much for the random thoughts.