The first indications of the impact on U.S. policy from the upheaval in the Arab world are beginning to appear. For Washington the news is not good. The most notable point so far is the re-emergence of Egypt as a vital player in regional politics. This time, however, Egypt is not playing the role of enlarging U.S. power and influence in the Mideast, but rather marginalizing it.
Last week Egypt brokered a deal to repair, at least for now, the split in the Palestinians between Hamas in the Gaza strip and Fatah which controls the Palestinian Authority (PA) on the West Bank. The PA under President Mahmoud Abbas receives about $400 million a year in U.S. aid. By contrast, the U.S. has labeled Hamas a terrorist organization.
In previous posts I have said that re-unification of the two Palestinian factions was a necessary condition if there was to be any restarting of meaningful peace talks with Israel to create an independent Palestinian state. In the past, any previous concessions by the PA to Israel for the creation of that state were labeled a sell out by Hamas, thus handicapping the possibility of progress. Any progress in creation of an independent Palestine was already jeopardized by PA demands that Israel cease construction of new settlements on lands in the West Bank envisioned to be included in the new state. Israel, on the other hand, continued and continues to approve such construction. While the patching of the Hamas-Fatah split strengthens the hand of the Palestinians as a negotiating partner with Israel, the Israelis, already very cool to independence, are now even less likely to negotiate with a Palestinian body that includes Hamas which has called for the destruction of Israel.
All of this leaves the U.S. as an outside spectator looking in on events over which it has no control. The Obama administration had tried unsuccessfully to get the peace talks restarted last September and had been pressuring Israel to halt new settlements, an effort ignored by Prime Minister Netanyahu whose cool attitude toward an independent Palestine has been reinforced by the extreme right wing of his coalition which is unalterably opposed to independence. To make matters worse, the PA may now proceed with its tentative plan to go to the U.N. General Assembly to seek international recognition of an independent Palestine, a move the U.S. has sought to discourage. If it goes to the General Assembly, there are good prospects it will get recognition.
But that's not the end of Egypt's renewed demonstration that it is a key player in the region. While it appears for now that Egypt will abide by it's peace treaty with Israel, it is also preparing to reopen Egypt's border with Gaza. That border had been closed by outsted President Mubarak, one of the ways he showed support of both Israeli and U.S. policy. An open border, opposed by Israel who seeks to isolate Hamas in Gaza, will permit a freer flow of arms and economic goods into Gaza.
And that is still not the end of the new Egyptian role in Middle East politics. Sunni Egypt says it will also normalize its relations with Shia Iran who considers the U.S. as its arch enemy. One of the major reasons for major military assistance to Egypt in the past was to have it act as a counterbalance to Iran's growing power and influence in the region. Egypt had broken diplomatic relations with Iran after the overthrow of the Shah in l979. In 1991, Egypt reopened relations with Tehran but at a level below a full embassy. In Egypt's restoring full diplomatic relations with Iran, that will leave only Israel and the United States without such relations.
There has been considerable speculation about Egypt and its regional role after the overthrow of Mubarak, a major U.S. spear carrier in the Mideast. Now the U.S. is getting the first indications of the direction of post-Mubarak Egyptian foreign policy and the most significant thing to be noted is that Cairo is operating independently of U.S. and thus marginalizing U.S. influence. This is even before the coming Egyptian elections which means a shakeout of Egypt's domestic
politics with possible further implications for its foreign policy.
I certainly hope that we will no longer be financially supporting the Egyptian military. This was the big fear as to what a post Mubarek Egypt would bring. I imagine Israel must be pretty worried. So, the "revolution" in Egypt is bringing around some big changes in their foreign policy but I wonder what will happen with respect to their domestic policy. It seems that the Egyptian people were revolting to get more rights and improve their economic situation.
ReplyDeleteI was under the impression that other Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia are not too thrilled with Iran gaining power in the region. Those countries can't be too happy with Egypt's new relation with Iran. The Israeli / Palestinian peace process must certainly be unattainable now. How could a country try to negotiate a peace treaty with an entity who only seeks its destruction.
The events in the Middle East are never dull. I haven't heard anymore about boots on the ground in Libya at least, but that hasn't been front lines on the news lately. Egypt opening their border with Gaza must be rather unnerving to the Israeli people living there. The peace process must be indefinitely stalled now with Hamas in the picture. It is hard to imagine either side, right of left, of the Israeli government wanting to negotiate with Hamas in the picture.
ReplyDeleteCarole
ReplyDeleteGuess with Egypt and the future it's cross your fingers and hope for the best, although "best" will be well short of the situation under Mubarak. But we should face the fact that Egyptian policy under Mubarak was not a reflection of what the Egyptian people would have chosen. What we are seeing now is a closer reflection of what the people want and that may be further altered after the fall elections there. Also, what is happening so far may have an element of a "declaration of independence" from the U.S.-Mubarak relationship, meaning the changes have a bit of a "stick in the U.S. eye".
Israel should be concerned because the clear meaning is that even if the peace treaty is kept in force, Egypt does not intend to be the lap dog it was before. You're right that the outlook for any Israeli-Palestinian peace accord is bleak indeed now that Hamas has repaired its relations with Fatah. But that patching up should not be taken as an end of the strained relations between the two factions. Lots can happen that will reopen the wound.
Yeah, I doubt that the Saudis are not particularly happy with the Egyptian decision on Iranian relations. But what may be of more concern to us is that the Saudis may also see the need for some kind of realighment with Iran, although retaining its basic belief that Iran seeks to dominate the region and thus threaten Saudi oil markets.
dpchuck
ReplyDeleteYeah, boots on the ground has dropped from the news. The attention now has shifted to Syria where no one want either boots on the ground or planes in the air. That's a relief.
It would certainly seem that things are at a dead end as far as any peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. The inclusion of Hamas certainly ends any such thoughts, but even if Hamas were still out in the cold, the so-called peace process had no life in it anymore.
The new Egyptian posture toward Israel in terms of the Gaza border certainly creates more uncertaintyd in Tel Aviv and Egypt's new relationship with Iran isolates Israel further. Believe Israel can say goodbye to any thoughts it may have had for bombing Iran's nuclear facilities. I would think the U.S. has even less interest in such an undertaking than it had before. Under Mubarak, Egypt probably would have been silent on Israel bombing Iran. Now Egypt would probably respond with an end to diplomatic relations with Israel and possibly abrogating the peace treaty entirely.
Israel really seems to be in a tight spot. They will be at the mercy of Iran developing nuclear weopons and cannot do anything about it without jeopardizing their relationship with Egypt. I guess the worst fears of what would happen after the Egypt uprisings are starting to come true. It is starting to look like the power vacuum in the region is going to be filled by Iran.
ReplyDeleteJeffrey
ReplyDeleteIn my opinioon the Israelis have contributed to their own isolation. Netanyahu has let his extreme right wint coalition partners push the anti-Palestinian agenda even farther to the right than Netanyahu, left to his own views, would have done. Also, the extreme right has been a major contributor to the strained relations with Turkey with whom Israel had good relations until about 2-3 years ago. Now Turkey is becoming an even bigger player in the region and Israel is also isolated from Ankara.
As to the power vacuum, Iran seems to have an expanding political power rather than an expanding economic and/or military power. So the challenge is to push back on any expansion of political power or strengthened political relationships such as we see going on with Egypt. In that sense what's going on in Syria is more important that the new Iran-Egyptian relationship. And despite renewed full diplomatic relationships, we will have to take a wait-and-see attitude on what that really means. I'm skeptical that Egypt's military wants to lessen its role as the dominant Arab military power in the neighborhood.