THE BOEHNER GRENADE

In a previous post about Congress and Parkinson's Law, the point was made that Congress seemed to be filling in the extra time it has to deal with the debt ceiling issue by playing "gotcha" partisan politics. That is, both parties, in order to embarrass the other side, have been playing to their voter bases by forcing votes on proposals that have little or no chance of becoming law.
But Congress may be forced to confront some real issues before it takes its month-long summer vacation beginning August 8.

Both Democrats and Republicans, with some GOP exceptions, are in general agreement that the debt ceiling will have to be raised above the existing $14.3 trillion cap in order to avoid a federal financial default and bring on another worldwide financial crisis. A week ago the issue seemed to be safely in the hands of Vice President Biden and a bipartisan congressional group, the objective being to work out a mutually acceptable deal. The group includes House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. The general outline of a deal that seemed to be evolving was that the debt limit would be raised, but without a fixed figure stated as yet; an agreement to do some more spending cuts, also undetermined at this early stage of negotiations; and a longer-term framework for deficit reduction.

This would moot important parts of the so-called Ryan budget for fiscal 2012 which begins Oct. 1 and was passed by the House last month. That budget called for about $5 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10 years with major savings coming from the restructuring of medicare and medicaid which account for much of the government's red ink. There was no prospect that Ryan's budget would get Senate approval and would certainly never escape a presidential veto. Also, over the Easter recess Republican lawmakers were backing away from the Ryan plan after getting an earful of opposition back home from the elderly and elderly to-be about the GOP plan to get rid of medicare as it now operates. With such dim prospects for the GOP budget plan, it seemed that the Biden group would stick with the debt level-spending cuts as stated above, leaving the big decisions on health care to be taken up after the 2012 presidential election.

Into this seemingly agreeable atmosphere of conflict resolution stepped House Speaker Boehner who threw a grenade that has the ability to resurrect the bitter partisanship we experienced in early spring when Congress finally dealt with closing out the fiscal 2011 budget, six months after the budget year began. What Boehner did was, in effect, to say "Whoa, slow down," we're not going to accept any deal on increasing the debt limit unless it includes TRILLIONS of dollars in spending cuts, without specifying the time frame for the reductions.

To do this would require Congress and President Obama to deal with the big ticket health care programs now, not after next year's elections. This could be finessed by dealing with these issues as part of the 2012 budget rather than be part of the debt ceiling issue. If Boehner's declaration becomes the operational GOP map for resolving the debt ceiling issue, then we are in for some very bitter politics in the weeks ahead. The expanded time contemplated in Parkinson's Law will be filled with clash and clang, to the barricades politics not the "gotcha" game that is now underway.

The first question is, however: Is Boehner serious or is he once again playing to the fiscal conservatives/tea party element of the House GOP. He did this before with the 2011 budget fight so a reprise of that political ploy would come as no surprise. Boehner said some time ago that it was essential to raise the debt ceiling to avoid the really bad fiscal consequences of not doing so. So once again, the question: "Will the real John Boehner please stand up?"

While Boehner is talking trillions in spending cuts, the Democrats have targeted big oil for a $21 billion tax increase, a proposal that runs directly counter to the bedrock GOP philosophy of opposition to any tax increases. And the Democratic Senate may again try to put immigration reform on the legislative calendar, an issue the GOP would like to avoid since their basic anti-immigration reform stand jeopardizes any chances they may have for picking up Hispanic votes.

As said in several previous postings on various subjects -- stay tuned.