ISRAEL AND THE PALESTINIANS: WHITHER?

Having dumped a bit of my chronic pessimism and cynicism on Washington politics in the previous posting, it is time to spread a bit of gloom abroad. A good place to start is, as usual, Israel and the endless, seemingly intractable problem of Israel reaching agreement with the Palestinians on establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

The issue may come once again to a head later this month if the Palestinians, in the person of Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas, go ahead with plans to bypass the moribund peace talks and go directly to the United Nations to gain recognition as a state. Needless to say, that move is frought with political dangers for Israel, the Palestinians, the U.S., and, to a lesser degree, a number of interested parties such as the European Union and Russia who have been pressing for some kind of renewed peace talks.


Right now the U.S. is scrambling to get negotiations resumed on some basis before the U.N. General Assembly meets on September 20. The Palestinians have two options and could choose both. First is to go to the Security Council and ask for U.N. membership, a move certain to draw a U.S. veto and thus the wrath of the Muslim world which sees the U.S. as the spear carrier for Israel, a role it has played since the U.N. created Israel in l948. The Arab world has long viewed the U.S. relationship with Israel as anti-Muslim, politically driven because of the large role played by Jewish votes and money in U.S. elections.

The other option is to go to the General Assembly where the U.S. has no veto power and seek recognition as a "nonmember" state like, for example, Taiwan and The Vatican. The U.S. efforts in behalf of Israel in the General Assembly is to lobby to reduce the number of countries voting for the Palestinians. Beyond these two options which have negative implications for U.S. policy in the Middle East, the U.S. already has enough troubles in the Arab world with its diminished image resulting from the demonstrations and revolutions of the Arab Spring.

The Israelis are equally interested in getting the Palestinians to call off its U.N. quest and return to some kind of negotiations. But there are serious limitations on what Israel can do about the problem since any return to the peace table is likely to be preceded by a renewed Palestinian demand for halting the building of Jewish settlements on land envisioned to be included in a new Palestinian state. The Palestinians also see the pre-l967 war boundaries as the starting point for delineating the borders of a new state. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu , even if he is personally willing to be flexible on these points, will run into the firm opposition of the extreme right wing members of his governing coalition. Ignoring the opposition of the settlement extremists within and outside of the government would likely mean the fall of the Netanyahu coalition.

For their part the Israelis will be pushing for Palestinian and world recognition of Israel as a Jewish state. Neither the Palestinians nor most countries can accept this because so many Palestinians still live within Israel and have been subjected to a variety of discriminatory actions that favor the Jewish citizens against the Palestinians. Recognition of Israel as a Jewish state would likely exacerbate that problem. These are to suggest only a few of the issues that can derail negotiations.


As to Abbas and "his" Palestinians, there is the thorny problem of the reconciliation of Abbas' Fatah faction of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) with Hamas which controls the Gaza strip and has been branded a terrorist organization by both Israel and the U.S. If Abbas wants to present himself as the legitimate Palestinian leader, he has to come to terms with Hamas. A reconciliation process, sponsored by Egypt, got underway a few months ago but implementing a deal to share governance has stalled, in part because a full reconciliation could mean the end of the $400 million annual subsidy of the Abbas government from the U.S. The
European Union is also a major contributor to Abbas.

But the real problem for Abbas in seeking to maintain his governing legitimacy is that he somehow has to show the Palestinians on the street that he can advance the cause of creation of an independent country. Lost in the Arab Spring headlines from Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, etc., were the demonstrations among Palestinians on the West Bank for political and economic progress in their part of the Arab world. With nothing to show for years of talks within the so-called peace process, Abbas came forth with the U.N. strategy to gain recognition at least as a participating state in the General Assembly and thus able to be represented on various U.N. committees.

So while the major players are moving pieces around on the international chessboard, the real problem for each is their own domestic politics which is the real stage and audience for all of the maneuvering. Right now it is difficult to see how the U.S. can avoid a further negative impact in the Arab world.