RAINING ON THE TEA PARTY PARADE, NEAR AND LONG TERM

The tea party (TP) and its fellow traveling (FT) organizations started as a protest movement and remains a protest movement. Given that their central concerns are spending, deficits, debt, and growth of government, they should have a long life ahead. For the TP/FT, whatever is achieved will never be enough. As I said in a previous post, they purvey a new political puritanism, if you don't agree with us on everything, we will get you at the next election. So this could be a good week for the TP/FT.

One of the umbrella TP organizations, the TP Patriots is organizing a protest in Washington on Thursday to hold the feet to the fire of establishment GOP lawmakers, and Speaker Boehner in particular. Their message: House Republicans must insist on a $61 billion cut in federal spending for the current fiscal year which ends on September 30. This is hardly a new demand but it comes just as the current short-term spending resolution is set to expire on April 8. The $61 billion figure was set weeks ago, but, unable to get that and in order to keep the government running, House Republicans have had to settle for a series of short-term funding resolutions. Now the TP/FT is saying, "if you can't get the $61 billion cut, shut down the government."

That too would hardly seem new but there seems to be a feeling among both GOP House leaders and Democratic leaders in the Senate that getting another short-term spending resolution, say for another 3-4 weeks,won't happen. Reportedly, the Democratic Senators are willing to go $20 billion in cuts which in any final agreement would probably reach $30+ billion. To those of us who have watched this mess for months, it's time for Congress to do something that will close out the budget battles for fiscal 2011, if for no other reason than to clear the field for resuming combat over fiscal 2012. The first skirmishes should come soon as the GOP presents its alternative to Obama's 2012 budget plan. With the seeming ability of Congress to exploit every legislative rule in the books, it is not clear why it's not possible to do something to get us beyond April 8. Congress should feel particularly pressed to end the budget war now, since, just back from a one week recess, it has to prepare for another two week recess for Easter.

And this is where the Thursday TP/FT protest gathering in Washington is aimed. They are adamant about the $61 billion. Here is where Boehner is caught between the proverbial rock and the hard place. If he opens himself up to a lower compromise number, he may lose a good share of the 87 new House members, many who ran openly as TP candidates with others being hardline conservatives equally adamant on spending, deficit issues. The April 8 resolution passed the House with substantial Democratic backing, a clear embarrassment to Boehner who has been red faced on several earlier occasions when TP/FT lawmakers deserted him.

We left of center people always hold out the hope that the TP will overplay its extremist hand and backfire in favor of the Democrats. In the short term, we can hope for a downpour on Thursday. I'll close out this posting with two long-term downside trends for the TP/FT.

First is a study based on census data showing an increasing number of African-Americans are moving out of northern urban areas and heading for cities and communities, large and small, in the south the original population heartland of African-Americans a century ago. The TP/FT is alive and well throughout the nation, but the south with its concentrations of TP/FT, plus evangelicals/fundamentalists is seen as its heartland. Demographics don't change quickly but for those far right enthusiasts thinking ahead, a new wave of African-American residents is not exactly what the male, white dominated movement wants to see. Further, apparently the African -Americans moving south are choosing places with small black population, presumably diluting white control.

Of no less concern must be the Census report that Hispanics are the fastest growing ethnic group in the nation. The TP movement, along with its fellow travelers, share that anti-immigration, nativist feeling that the desired white, protestant culture is threatened to be swallowed up by the brown, Catholic Hispanics who live among us. The new group now represents 16.3 percent of the population, up hugely from the 12.5 percent in 2000. Further, as the fastest growing ethnic group, Hispanics will see the obvious political advantages accruing to them.

I won't be around as these long-term demographic trends and policies play out, but in the near term, I am hoping for heavy rain in Washington on Thursday.