A very recent posting looking at the evolution of events in the Middle East, focusing on the Israel-Palestinian issue and the formation of a new government in Iraq, concluded that there was no light at the end of the tunnel in these two problem areas--only darkness. A few days later, a column by analyst David Ignatius, for whom I have a high regard, seemed to have a brighter view of the Iraqi situation so it seemed that another look would be in order. Doing so reminded me of the story of Alice who stepped through a mirror and visited an alternative world.
In analyzing any situation, the viewer brings to the task some kind of basic outlook about politics and politicians. The possible outlooks can be light or darkness at the end of the tunnel, optimism or pessimism, or glass half full-half empty. As a skeptic and sometimes cynic, I usually opt to look through a dark lens, but with a willingness to be proven wrong.
Right now I'm prone to draw a parallel between the formation of a new Iraqi government and what's going on in the soon-to-end special session of the U.S. Congress. In Congress there has been a breakout of bipartisanship after two years of obstructionist GOP partisanship. The seeming bipartisanship is the result of President Obama's "must" legislation for retaining middle class tax cuts and extending unemployment benefits joining with a Republican "must" list to extend tax cuts for the upper income while also squeezing the President for other tax advantages for the wealthy, primarily the estate tax. And there is some bipartisanship going on with the Senate's decision to take up consideration of another Obama "must", ratification of the nuclear weapons reduction treaty with Russia. Come January and the new Congress with GOP control of the House and more seats in the Senate, this current bipartisanship will be hard to find as Republicans turn their attention to their biggest "must", ousting Obama in 2012 and taking complete control of Congress.
In Iraq there is another "must" dynamic in play. For more than nine months since the parliamentary elections, political fighting between those in office and those wanting in, plus the traditional division between the Shiites, Sunni, and Kurds have prevented formation of a government. Now with the recent decision to have the former and interim Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki form the new government, the Iraqi constitutional clock started to tick requiring the new government to be formed by December 25. (Given the nature of Iraqi politics, it puzzles me why they are suddenly so constitutional minded.) So a "must" situation has forced the contenders to settle their differences on forming a multiparty/faction coalition. The major holdout had been Ayid Allawi, leader of a secular Shiite-Sunni party that had narrowly won the parliamentary election but was far short of the majority needed to form a government and was unable to put together a coalition. With the "must" deadline approaching, Allawi had to decide whether to enter the al-Maliki coalition or stay out in the cold. He chose to enter. Here is where Ignatius and this blogger see the situation through different lenses.
Ignatius seems to see the political and security situation in Iraq improving to the point where there is light at the end of the tunnel. But to me a number of crucial issues besides who gets what positions in the new government remain to be decided and these issues deal with actual power. Allawi will head a new council to oversee security and foreign policy issues. But, and it's a very big "but", the powers of this council have not yet been decided and it could become a hollow shell with real power retained by al-Maliki and his allies. Supposedly the council's power will be decided very soon. According to reports, the decisions of the new council will require an 80 percent super majorityfor approval. It must be assumed that al-Maliki and his Shiite and Kurdish backers control 60-70 percent and Allawi wants to be sure that the votes he controls will count. It is not difficult, however, to see obstacles to getting an 80 percent vote. Would that mean the decision is left to al-Maliki? Also undecided, at least so far as media reporting, are the crucial issues such as who gets the cabinet seat that controls the security forces, who will head the important oil ministry, expansion of the Kurdish semi-autonomous region to include oil-rich Kirkuk, and the future of U.S. forces in Iraq after 2011 when all troops are to leave. Thus, the December 25 "must" deadline has brought about an Iraqi multipartisanship akin to the bipartisan Christmas deadline in our Congress. But more importantly, like the GOP's next priority on defeating Obama, will al-Maliki move beyond multipartisanship to the power objective by squeezing out the opposition to gain unchallenged control of power for himself and his hardline religious Shiite followers?
To conclude, I hope Ignatius' optimism, however guarded, trumps my skepticism. Countless lives and hundreds of billions of dollars have been invested in the outcome. Until then, I'll stay on this side of the looking glass.
In the case of the US Congress Obama may be a much better deal cutter than originally surmised by the media. He gave the wealthy their tax cuts... for two years... and in exchange seems to have got his lame duck agenda approved for action by McConnell and Boehner. He very well may get DADT and START passed by Christmas along with the extension of unemployment benefits and payroll tax breaks for a year included in the tax compromise. Suddenly he's look very (Bill) Clintonesque.
ReplyDeleteyou're right. He's being called the Comeback Kid. He is certainly getting more than could have been expected when the tax deal itself was first announced. He got DADT and may get START. Too bad he lost on the DREAM act, that's a really worthy piece of legislation but which may get lost next year, along with the larger immigration bill. It was a "strike while the iron is hot" for both sides. McConnell got a lot of tax stuff for the rich, but Obama got a lot in return, including a chunk of stimulus money in the tax bill. With the Tea Party coming on board next month, Boehner and McConnell may not have gotten away with so much add-on for the deficit and the debt.
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