BUBBLE, BUBBLE, TOIL AND TROUBLE

It's time for a pre-Halloween scare story. And, of course, every scare story about witches and their brew must begin with the Tea Party (TP), or perhaps a suntanned John Boehner riding a broom.

Last week the Associated Press carried a story that there were more than 70 Tea Party candidates running for House and Senate Seats in the midterm elections now just 15 days away. On the same day, The New York Times (NYT) nearly doubled that number, saying there were l39 TP candidates for Congress, although the article noted that some were running in strong Democratic districts and are thus seen as an outlet for protest votes rather than candidates in competitive races. The discrepancy in numbers may flow from the difficulty of sorting those who have been identified as TP or TP-backed candidates and those who have chosen to brand themselves as TP candidates to take advantage of what they perceive as the direction in which the ideological wave is moving. In any case, 70 or 139, and whether backed TP-backed or self-packaged TP candidates, all are running as Republicans and the TP is likely to score some significant victories and take their clash-and-clang policy and political agendas to Washington.

Much has been written, including several postings on this blog, about how the TP has forced the establishment Republican party to shift farther to the ideological right. With that shift has come the question of how the TP winners will effect the GOP legislative/political agenda in the next Congress. Will the establishment GOP, reflected in the current leadership of the House (Boehner) and Senate (McConnell), co-opt the more extremist new members, as some TP activists fear, or will the high decibel tactics of the TP's campaign politics carry over into the Congress and cause visible and audible dissension within the GOP ranks?

From this blogger's perspective it would seem that the TP extremist views have an advantage and will make further inroads into the policies and political strategies of the establishment GOP. The NYT numbers suggest that association with the Tea Party is seen as having more fire power than the GOP label, as indicated by the poll data that show both the Republican and Democratic parties in Congress are held in very low esteem by the public. And fundamental to the success of the TP movement, as noted in a previous post, is its adoption of a new puritanism with its implicit warning--"if you are not for us, you are against us." The "for us" meaning adherence to the complete package of "anti-whatever" policies advocated by the TP and the fellow traveling organizations that have found new life under the TP umbrella . The TP movement began with a focus on a balanced-budget-now and anti-big government agenda, but it did not take long before a variety of organizations with cultural/social policy agendas attached themselves to the TP's public rallies and protests. The end result was that the TP has come to be the big tent political movement often touted by the establishment GOP. At the same time the TP became the loudest and most visible voice of the so-called disgruntled voter, further overshadowing the GOP with its more traditional, "what's new" way of representing itself as the party of change.

Sadly, and to continue the abusive use of metaphors, while we see the extremist voices being herded together in border-collie-like fashion into the TP corral, the Democrats are in an "every person for herself or himself" mode. The TP "for us or against us" herding is countered by the Democratic theme of, "it's okay, you can have it both ways, just say and do and whatever it takes to win." Thus some Democrats, while accepting money from the party's Congressional Campaign Committee, are free to campaign against their own leader in the House, Speaker Nancy Pelosi. One example cited in a NYT article on October 16, is Democratic Representative Jim Marshall of Georgia who, according to the article, "spent much of a debate Thursday night renouncing Ms. Pelosi" whose liberal views run counter to those held by most voters in Marshall's district. Marshall's debate posturing has extended to his television commercials. It should be noted that Marshall voted for Pelosi as Speaker two years ago. In the "whatever it takes to win your seat" election guidance, Pelosi who has a big stake in the outcome, has said, "I just want them to win."

The bottom line of this pre-Halloween story is that even if the Democrats should retain control of both the House and Senate (and the House seems unlikely at this point), it would be a much reduced majority that will include enough conservative Blue Dog members so that prospects for advancing any new progressive legislation will be dim or nonexistent. The Democrats will continue to face solid GOP opposition, but the driving force may be the more conservative right wing ideology of newly elected Tea Party members. The GOP "Party of No" will be a more strident "Party of No, Never". And that's the best case scenario.

The more likely outcome is a Republican takeover of the House and a reduced Democratic majority in the Senate. The House GOP majority which will now include Tea Party adherents will seek to undo key elements of President Obama's legislative victories, most notably health care reform and increased regulation of the financial markets. Then there are the more extremist issues proposed by various TP candidates, issues such as the constitutionality of social security and abolishing the Department of Education and the Internal Revenue Service. Whether any of these ideas will get beyond the bill introduction or subcommittee hearing stages is doubtful, although the House leadership will need to give lip service at least to some parts of the TP wish list that differ from the establishment GOP agenda.

Overall, the process will be role reversal with a more conservative GOP House sending a liberal-led Democratic Senate a series of bills to repeal or gut Obama's victories. Now, using the same 60-vote rule exploited by the Republicans to obstruct Democratic legislative goals, Senate Democrats will try to block floor consideration of the GOP bills passed by the House. Whatever the specific outcomes, the GOP/TP (or TP/GOP) aim will be to set the legislative and rhetorical stage for making Obama a one term President who presided over what they will try to label "a failed presidency".

This year Halloween should be postponed until November 2.