2011 SHAPING UP TO BE A BAD YEAR FOR U.S.

The year is just seven months old but is shaping up as a bad year for the U.S. at home and abroad in both substance and image.

Starting at home, one would have to conclude that regardless of how the debt ceiling issue ends, it is almost certain to be a half measure at best in terms of a long term solution to the country's fiscal condition. The problem is undertaxation, thanks to George W. Bush, and the inability to support the high spending levels to which we've become accustomed. Further, the inability to get beyond short-term, politically driven fixes can be laid to a significant degree on the GOP's lack of leadership against the irresponsible demands of the tea party (TP) and its no-compromise, fiscal extremist supporters in the House of Representatives.

Not only has the TP-driven fracture among Republicans undermined congressional ability to deal with the substance of the spending/taxing issue, but the mess in Washington has further sullied the standing of the U.S. as the gold standard of fiscal responsibility. China, which has a big stake in the soundness of the U.S. government debt, has labeled the floundering and fumbling in Washington as "dangerously irresponsible". It is difficult to sell democracy abroad when our own government is badly broken.

Adding further to the diminished image of U.S. financial responsibility and strength has been the threat of downgrading the country's credit rating by the major rating companies. While at vastly different levels of fiscal soundness, the U.S. now gets bundled with Greece, Ireland, Italy, and a few other European countries, as nations whose credit standing needs to be watched for further signs of deterioration. This comes on top of the worldwide financial crisis three years ago when fast and loose practices by Wall Street and mortgage lenders brought us and some other countries to the brink of financial collapse. Thus, we now face the world with a badly tarnished image of financial stability, reliability, and integrity.

Turning to 2011 as a bad year for the U.S. abroad, it is difficult to know where to start. An obvious starting point would be our two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, but first a look at the so-called Arab Spring sparked by pro-democracy movements toppling the government of Tunisia followed by the ouster of long-time ally President Mubarak of Egypt. Mubarak's fall clearly undermined our image as a reliable ally. Now once-close Middle East partners such as Saudi Arabia view us as an unreliable partner willing to undermine authoritarian rulers such as Mubarak (and perhaps the Saudi king) with whom we were aligned for decades if the politics of the moment demand it. Mubarak had been our principal spear carrier in the Middle East in seeking a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian issue and in serving as a military counterbalance to the growing power of Iran. The expansion of Iran's influence was greatly aided by our invasion of Iraq and the toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003. Now the Iraq invasion is seen by many in the Muslim world as a neo-Christian crusade seeking to implant western political and cultural values in the Muslim Middle East.

Looking at EGYPT today, there are troubling signs that our major hope of preventing the emergence of a strict Islamic regime may be in danger. It was very recently reported that ultraconservative Islamics, along with the large and influential Muslim Brotherhood whose political/religious goals are not clear, have been turning out in very large numbers to protest against some of the political aims of liberal activists.
In IRAQ violence is greater now than it was a year ago with assassinations, bombings, and attacks on U.S. troops increasing rather than decreasing as Iraqi has assumed greater responsibility for its own security. At the same time, Iran has been gaining greater influence in Iraqi affairs.

In AFGHANISTAN the recent killings of the mayor of Kandahar and the half brother of President Karzai have highlighted the fragile nature of political and military control there. This comes at the same time still another U.S. report is issued on the rampant corruption inside and outside of the Karzai government. Meanwhile, at home there is increasing public discontent with the seeming war-without-end which has now been going for ten years.

In SYRIA we had been holding out the hope that the Assad government might somehow be the vehicle for political reform. Instead Assad has cracked down severely on the dissenters and there is evidence that the fighting is becoming a sectarian battle promoted by Assad. With fighting between religious groups possibly emerging, Assad can claim that his government is the only means to protect the various religious and ethnic groups in that country.

In LIBYA. we have passed the baton for getting rid of Qadaffi to NATO but what we seem to have is a stalemated civil war with no near term sign that this will change.

In the ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN confrontation, what can one say? Despite the many international efforts to get peace talks resumed, the issue appears to be stuck on square one.

In sum, to flip the words of a Frank Sinatra song, 2011 so far has not been a very good year.