President Obama's speech on Afghanistan was puzzling. The announcement on troop withdrawals are certainly welcome, although the timetable is slow. But the underlying case made for withdrawals, however welcome, had the tone of former President Bush's "mission accomplished" boast immediately after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. And we know how that turned out.
Obama seemed to be focusing the case for withdrawal on having dealt al-Qaeda such severe setbacks that it is no longer a threat in Afghanistan. The capstone for this assessment was the killing of Osama bin Laden. The problem is that the thrust of our continuing war in Afghanistan has been against the Taliban not al-Qaeda. Obama did say that the U.S. and NATO forces have "inflicted serious losses" on the Taliban and "taken a number of strongholds." However, such claims sound similar to "light at the end of the tunnel" claims made in Vietnam four decades ago. Those claims were challenged at that time and there are serious doubts about how successful we have really been against the Taliban.
In Afghanistan our so-called counterinsurgency strategy is a "win the hearts and minds" of the people while building up Afghanistan's own security forces as we pull out, a la Vietnam. We have indeed pushed our forces into such Taliban strongholds as Kandahar while Taliban forces have resorted to terrorist bombings in Kabul and other cities and regained their hold in some rural areas. These rural areas, plus the Taliban havens in Pakistan, are likely to serve as the bases for expanding their control as our forces are withdrawn. And Kandahar itself is the former core of Taliban strength and there is reasonable doubt that it can be held by Afghan forces after our withdrawal.
We seem to be counting on achieving some kind of political settlement with the Taliban to head off its return to pre-war control of the country and again serve as host to al-Qaeda or other terrorist organizations which can attack us or our friends or destabilize Afghanistan or neighboring Pakistan. Thus, in focusing on the severe setbacks to al-Qaeda as the primary basis for "mission accomplished", the President downplayed the fact that the war has been with the Taliban which shows little sign of going away despite our claims.
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Now to the homefront and the partisan battle over raising the debt ceiling in tandem with mega reductions in federal spending. The point of this posting is the utter frustration and disgust with Congress in getting the job done.
Much has been made of the August 2 deadline for raising the federal debt ceiling above the $14.3 trillion limit set previously by Congress. Much has been also said about how failure to meet this deadline threatens a federal default in its debt obligations and the consequent devastating effect this would have on our own and the international economies. It has also been pointed out that any package worked out by Vice President Biden and a small bipartisan congressional group also would require considerable additional time to legislate the multiple pieces of legislation required to make spending cuts or other changes in specific programs such as Medicare. Presumably whatever progress was made in the Biden negotiations prior to the "our way or no way" (meaning absolutely no tax increases) walk out by GOP House Majority Leader Cantor last week will become the basis for President Obama and Speaker Boehner getting the deal further down the tracks. Hopefully, what lies down the tracks is not a train wreck.
With all of these debt/spending problems Congress has carved out still more recess time for itself between now and the August 2 deadline, to be followed on August 8 by a month long summer vacation for the already underworked lawmakers. The Senate will take a week off (July 4-10) for the Independence Day holiday while the House will recess June 27-July 5, followed by another week off July 18-24. So Independence Day for Congress means independence from legislative work so they can go home and campaign/raise money for next year's elections. The GOP controlled House is particularly generous to itself on recess time. They, of course, would say that work on the debt/spending problems will continue behind the scenes, but for the public it simply has the appearance of a self-serving, dysfunctional Congress. And isn't there anything else to deal with except the fiscal issues and passing gotcha legislation designed to appeal to the political base; are there no immigration, energy, or education problems?
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Speaking of political fund raising, politicians may have come up with a new low in how to fatten their coffers. A Washington Post article called it "money blurts". It works this way. A politician says something outrageous and after it goes out over talk shows and blogs small donors rush to the phone and contribute to the person making the statement. According to the Post article, presidential wannabe Michelle Bachmann's statement on cable news accusing President Obama of "anti-American views" netted her $1 million in contributions. But the idea may not be so new. In 2009, GOP Congressman Joe Wilson of South Carolina called out "You lie" during an Obama speech in Congress. Within a week he got $2 million in contributions.
So what used to be called "sound bites" may now reach new heights as well planned "money blurts". Just what we need.
And so it begins - the misrepresentations, neglect of the issues at hand, and last but not least, the recesses. It sounds like the successful elimination of top al Qaeda leaders is the excuse to get out of Afghanistan but I'm afraid if we do complete chaos will occur and all that has been gained will be lost. It is a wonder though how we will really ever be able to get out. Negotiations with the Taliban would be like building a house on shifting sands. You could never trust the integrity.
ReplyDeleteIt's deja vu all over again. This summer is just like the spring. The debt ceiling issue was/is plying down on us fast and Congress was/is on recess. It's a great job indeed. Lots of time off and guaranteed health care and pensions. Too bad the constituents don't get the same thing.
Carole
ReplyDeleteThe Afghan situation is certainly a dilemma. But it seems even more so if one accepts on face value how much progress we have made. I for one am very skeptical about our claims of progress. Such progress that we have made is built on our troops moving into an area and holding it. If we move out, as we have in some places, the Taliban moves back in. But unless we plan to hold such areas indefinitely, those places will revert to Taliban country. Like you, I view making a deal with the Taliban to be very risky but the alternative is tht we stay for a very long time. My confidence in the ability of Afghan forces to get up to speed so they can bring security is close to nil. One of the real problems is that the Karzai government is so corrupt and incompetent that is there is no one who has the capability to bring the country together. And we are actually fighting against the historical fact that Afghanistan has long been a fragemented nation with rule by clans and ethnic war lords. There seems to be nothing or anyone in whom we could have any confidence that will change that historical fact, which also appears to be a future fact. As a stray point, I read in an article today about the opium trade in Afghanistan and it said that the poppy/opium business provides the Taliban with about $100 million in revenues.
I couldn't agree with you more on Congress and its self-indulgence. It has been that way for a long time but it stands out even more right now because of the pressing debt/spending problem and other problems that seem to be ignored. Re-election is everything and with campaigns getting increasingly expensive, our lawmakers need more time to be out there raising money for themselves. It makes one want to move to Afghanistan.
Unless we are willing to stay in Afghanistan forever, I don not see how it is ever going to be "stable". As mentioned it has always been so factionalized and why would that change now. But at some point we are going to have to pull out and hope for the best. I guess you cannot blame Obama for trying to find a smooth way out and the recent defeats for al Queda seems like a good way.
ReplyDeleteThe whole thing with Congress does not even surprise me for a minute. When the extension was given I figured Congress would wait til the last minute and then we'd be hearing all the same rhetoric that we heard this pas spring. The news stations could just rerun the spring programs and take the month off. No one would know.
Jeffrey
ReplyDeleteAfghanistan could become "stable" but not the way we would like. It is possible that the Taliban could regain its old control and thus stabilize the country in a repressive way. As an earlier posting said, stability can come in many forms other than the kind the western countries have in mind. Since Obama has chosen the middle way out of Afghanistan he has drawn the fire of those who want a faster withdrawal and those who say the withdrawal is too fast.
Unhappily, the gains we have made in Afghanistan against al-Qaeda are being offset by the gains al-Qaeda seems to be making in Yemen, the next terrorist trouble spot.
There does indeed seem to be a replay of what we heard in the spring on getting a deal on closing out the 2011 budget. Then it was a series of short-term extensiions of the continuing resolution allowing the government to keep spending. Now we may be treated to a series of small, short-term increases in the debt ceiling while Obama and the Republicans try to work out a closing deal after Congress ends its summer vacation. In any case, we are likely to have to go through some of the same scenarios after the 2012 election.