It has been several months since I've had a posting focused on the Israeli-Palestinian so-called peace process. The title of that posting indicates this blogger's view of that process, "The Peace Process That Isn't, and maybe never was." There probably wouldn't have been another posting on that moribund issue if there hadn't been a story online two days ago that the European Union (EU) has prodded the Israelis to resume the peace talks on the grounds that the current instability/uprising in the Arab world makes restarting the talks even more important. The Israeli response was that the revolutions and uprisings are unrelated to the Palestinian problem. But given the EU's resurrection of the issue, I put aside what I was writing on the Tea Party and the budget to peer again into the Israeli-Palestinian great divide.
The EU and its representative who went to Israel must see something that is not visible to the rest of us. And it seems a bit of European chutzpah to even be the bearer of such a message. Just last week four EU members (Britain, France, Germany, and Portugal) of the U.N. Security Council voted for a resolution denouncing Israel's continued construction of settlements in the occupied territories of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. The U.S. cast the only veto.
The settlement issue has been the sticking point for resuming the negotiations, the Israelis continuing to approve new settlement construction while the Palestinians have stated repeatedly they will not resume direct peace talks unless the settlements are stopped. Settlements, of course, are only the threshold issue. Farther down the road are the substantive issues of marking the borders for an independent Palestinian state, Israel's security concerns, resettlement of refugees driven out of the occupied territories by the l967 war, and the Palestinian demand that East Jerusalem be the capital of a new Palestine.
If the settlement issue isn't enough to block further talks, look at some of the other events that have occurred since last fall when the latest round of talks collapsed, events which the EU seems to overlook but which directly affect any possible resumption of negotiations. Here's a rough timeline for those events.
In late January Al Jazeera, the pro-Arab international news network, leaked to British media that over about a decade of secret Israeli-Palestinian talks, the Palestinian negotiators made several major concessions to Israel, including agreement to let Israel annex many settlements in dispute, settle for the return of just 100,000 of the estimated 5 million refugees, and concede more areas of old Jerusalem to the Israelis. On top of that, the so-called "Palestine Papers" alleged that Israel had informed the leaders of the Palestinian Authority that it was going to send the army into Hamas-controlled Gaza in 2008 and also told of Israeli plans to assassinate Hamas leaders. The allegations were denied by the Palestinian Authority, headed by Mahmoud Abbas. Regardless of the authenticity of the leaks, the stories inflamed Hamas which controls Gaza and which has long opposed any peace settlement with Israel. Before trying to launch another round of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, the first need is to repair the split between leaders of the West Bank and Gaza.
The "Palestine Papers" were reported at about the same time that Israeli Foreign Minister Lieberman, a far right extremist and defender of expanded settlements, was reported to be working on a provisional plan concerning creation of an independent Palestine. His plan, never officially endorsed as yet, would give independence to about 40-50 percent of the disputed territory with the remainder to be negotiated at some indeterminate future date. The Palestinian Authority rejected such a plan outright because they see Lieberman as the enemy and also see such a provisional arrangement becoming permanent.
Then about two weeks ago the Palestinian Authority's entire cabinet resigned except for Prime Minister Fayyad who was to form a new government. This came at the same time that new Palestinian parliamentary elections were announced for September. The elections would be the first to be held since Hamas narrowly won the 2006 election and eventually gained control of the Gaza strip, leaving Abbas controlling only the West Bank.`The sudden announcement of elections may indicate that the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, and elsewhere were prompting Abbas to clean up his own legitimacy, as well as that of the parliament. Abbas' term of office ran out in 2009 but he has managed to hold on to his position. And, in the same week, Saeb Erakat, the long time chief negotiator for the Palestinians, resigned his position when it was concluded that the leaked Al Jazeera material came from his office.
What we have then is considerable disarray within the Palestinian Authority which, on top of the already deeply embedded mistrust between it and Israel, would certainly further weaken the Palestinian negotiating strength vis a vis Israel. So except for any rhetorical or good-feeling value it may have for the EU, the Europeans urging a restart of the collapsed talks seems out of touch with reality.
I have never held much in the belief that the peace talks were ever going to come to fruition. I'm wondering why the Europeans are so anxious about the peace talks. Maybe the threat of war in the region would disrupt oil supplies upon which they have a lot of dependence. I'm trying to remember a reply in the previous blog that I found interesting. It had to do with votes and that one country could vote the opposite and that derails the issue. It isn't any wonder that the US has problems with the muslim countries. Israel must be really concerned with all the unrest (as you said, hardly the right word) surrounding them, but the outcomes will affect countries around the world in one form or other if nothing else due to oil supplies.
ReplyDeleteCarole
ReplyDeleteIt escapes me why the Europeans are trying to restart the so-called peace process. I can understand their concern about what's going on in the Arab world and its potential effects on oil supplies but how the Israel-Palestinian problem fits into this is a mystery to me. I read in this morning's paper (Friday) where still another group, the Middle East quartet, is trying to get the talks going again. The quartet is made of of representatives of the U.S., U.N. European Union, and Russia. The Palestinian Authority is already so weakened by the events cited in the posting that it is hardly able to sit down now as a viable negotiator with Israel so why put pressure on the PA.
The Muslim world has been upset with us since l948 with the U.S. support of the partitioning of Palestine and creation of Israel. Our vetoes of anything anti-Israel in the U.N. Security Council is only a small part of the problem about our pro-Israel bias. For example, a major event showing where we stand on our policy toward Israel came in l973 when we airlifted a huge amount of military equipment and supplies to Israel to head off what appeared to be shaping up as an Arab victory in the Yom Kippur war. Our resupply action led to an Arab oil embargo of shipments to the U.S. which did not end until the next year.
Even though Saudi Arabia said it would make up for any losses of Libyan oil, the world is still nervous that the general "unrest" could ripple out in a variety of ways that could screw up oil shipments, including those to big and growing importers such as China and India. And, of course, that nervousness is a golden opportunity for speculators in oil futures to add to the spike in oil prices.
It truly is a global world. Issues in other parts of the world have such a ripple effect everywhere especially economically thse days. I remember the 1973 oil crisis in the US, but did not really realize the why behind it. Our relationship with Israel really puts us in a bad way with Arab nations. I have never thought either that the peace process would ever really happen. There have been so many starts and stops during the years and nothing ever comes of it. Maybe soon enough we will find out why the EU is so anxious about it all of a sudden. I am curious. The only thing I could think of also was oil somehow, but not really sure how. Also waiting to see what happens with Libya but it sure seems Saudi Arabia will make out in the exports of oil.
ReplyDeleteI think that we should all post our entries as to why we think Europe is so impassioned by the peace talks. I haven't come up with my reasons yet but it makes me think of the movie the pelican brief so I'm going to have to go outside the box.
ReplyDeleteI imagine Israel must be very worried right now with all the "unrest" surrounding it. I can't imagine what it would be like to be a small country surrounded completely by enemies. It just seems too small a country to be able to support all the people who want to claim it as their own.
Jeffrey
ReplyDeleteMy own feeling is that Israel which has always been extremely wary of creating an independent Palestinian state is more wary now. There are so many unknowns in the neighboring Arab world that giving independence to the West Bank plus Gaza would also mean allowing the new state to have its own independent military. That is the great security concern of Israel about an independent Palestine. At the narrowest point in Israel, there would only be about 15 miles between the new state and the Mediterranean Sea so cutting Israel in half in a war would be a huge threat.
As to Europe's motivation, it will remain a mystery. But the usual "stay tuned" for finding a reason is not likely to apply this time. The European effort will come to nothing and be forgotten. If it doesn't turn out that way, forget where you read this.
dpchuck
ReplyDeleteRead my reply to Jeffrey, above, which also responds to your point about Israel being a small country surrounded by a number of hostile neighbors. Also, the mystery of the renwed European interest in the peace process.
In addition, about 20 percent of Israel's population are Arab citizens, those who stayed on after the l948 war rather than leave and become refugees. These Arab citizens are certainly discriminated against and have shown sympathies to their fellow Arabs on the West Bank and in Gaza. In the Arab section of Jerusalem, Israel has knocked down Arab homes to make way for Jewish settlement. Israel feels free to do this since they annexed the Arab sections of Jerusalem after taking them over in the l967 war. This is unlike the West Bank which was also taken in the l967 war but was not annexed to become a part of Israel itself.