DISAPPEARANCE OF THE MIDDLE: BIPOLARIZATION OF POLITICS

Since the midterm elections more than two weeks ago, I have been looking for a shorthand way of how to think about our politics--where it is and where we are heading. That took me to two quotes.

"I won" is how President Obama put it to Republican congressional leaders during discussion of tax policy at a White House meeting in early 2009. "Mission Accomplished" was the wording on the banner when former President George W. Bush landed aboard an aircraft carrier shortly after toppling Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003. For both Obama and Bush, the two expressions carried the implicit add on, "end of story". As both came to realize, it wasn't the end of the story for either President or the nation, but rather the beginning of a painful "to be continued". Seven years later the Iraq war continues at the cost so far of tens of thousands of lives (Iraqi and U.S.) and hundreds of billions of dollars, with 50,000 troops still stationed there. Obama's "to be continued" has been to confront defeat on his promise to bring a new spirit of bipartisan harmony to Washington and inaugurate a change in direction for the nation.

The Iraq war was certainly a divisive issue from the outset, but it is actually less divisive now because a large and growing majority of people has coalesced around the need for a decision to "get out". For Obama, however, the unhappy fact of the current political polarization is that it is growing. What we think of as the political middle seems to have disappeared, at least for now, as we drift toward increased bipolar politics. What is perhaps the most troublesome thing about the collapse of the middle is that it seems to be based more on the virulence of the rhetoric than on the substance of the issues. And, it is sad to acknowledge, here is where the Tea Party movement has had its greatest impact -- accelerating the emergence of a bipolar political world of extreme right conservatism and an increasingly passionate left wing liberalism/progressivism.

The middle, at least for now, has drifted toward the right. That drift has occurred in part because of the realities of a seemingly intractable economic problem characterized by high unemployment and slow growth, along with the uncertainty created among families about their own future. Obama and the Democratic Congress have been blocked in their proposed remedies by the obstructionist, partisan, and continuing strategy of Republicans to make Obama a one-term President. The drift to the right has also had appeal because of the simplistic rhetoric designed and exploited by the Tea Party since its start in early 2009, and subsequently picked up by traditional and moderate conservatives in order to get elected or re-elected. That simplistic rhetoric calls for cut spending, cut taxes, reduce the deficit, stop the liberal/socialist subversion of the Constitution, and end the growing intrusion of government into our lives. After the recent elections, Obama's "I won" has been replaced by the Republican "we won".

Unfortunately, the "we won" of the midterm elections in only a resting point on the way toward the GOP goal of total victory in 2012, total meaning a takeover of the Senate and the White House. Mitch McConnell couldn't have made it more clear in publicly stating his crass legislative strategy for the next two years -- do whatever it takes to make Obama a one-term President. Thus, any Obama effort to seek a bipartisan compromise by shifting toward the middle will find there is no one there to greet him. At the same time, his liberal/progressive base will attack him for abandoning both his and their values and goals.

Twice above in this post I have referred to the drift of the political middle toward the right as "at least for now". That could change if an unforseen event occurs that requires the two parties to come together to deal with whatever it is. The early drift of the Bush administration was transformed by the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center, an event that reshaped and continues to have a major hold on our national psyche. Absent such an event, "at least for now" may have some staying power for at least two more years, and perhaps beyond. Until 2012, GOP/Tea Party failure to convert the rhetoric into substance will be explained by continued left wing Democratic control of the Senate and the White House, reflected further by the House Democrats retaining Nancy Pelosi as their leader. After 2012, who knows?

In sum, throughout the now ended campaign there was much discussion and lamenting about the lack of civility in our political discourse. With less or no moderating influence from the middle, the lack of civility in our polarized political world is likely to rise to an even higher decibel level.